Thursday, January 03, 2008

Hostage to Fortune (1)

I fully expect to be surprised by the outcome of the American presidential primaries, and election. I also expect to be less surprised than I ought to be, because I will have conveniently forgotten just how wrong my prognostications along the way actually were.

The world is a lot less predictable than our memories make it out to be.

To make this a little more more visible to myself, I'm going to record my predictions along the way. (Feel free to join in.)

Today, just before the Iowa caucuses, my forecast is:
Clinton v. Giuliani; Giuliani wins.
"He that hath wife and children hath given hostages to fortune; for they are impediments to great enterprises, either of virtue or mischief." Attributed to Francis Bacon (1561-1626), "Of Marriage and Single Life".

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